Insights

How big is the market you won’t find on CoinGecko?

Sizing crypto’s private markets with a structured approach

As we continue to unpack how Web3 private markets actually work, one question keeps coming up. Just how big is this part of the crypto economy?

Let’s try to break it down using two complementary methods: one based on venture activity, the other on public market data and what it doesn’t show.

Crypto VC investment and deal count from 2016 to Q1 2025. After a peak in 2022, activity cooled but remains steady, indicating sustained interest in early-stage Web3.

Method One: Venture Capital as a Proxy

According to Galaxy Research, $103.6B has been invested into crypto projects from 2021 through Q1 2025. But that’s just capital deployed, not the full value of the companies.

To estimate that, we can walk through three steps:

1. Valuation at the time of investment
Carta data suggests that average pre-money valuations are about 5× the capital raised. That puts the estimated value at around $518B ($103.6B × 5).

2. Growth from Seed to Series B
Over a 3 to 4 year period, early-stage crypto startups typically grow their valuations by 6.8×. That brings the figure to approximately $3.52T ($518B × 6.8).

3. Adjusting for non-disclosed deals
PitchBook and CB Insights estimate that only 30–40% of early-stage deals are publicly disclosed. If $3.52T represents just 35% of the real market, the full sector value could fall somewhere between $8T and $11T.

Method Two: Public Market + Illiquidity Layer

As of June 17, 2025, CoinGecko lists the total crypto market cap at $3.45T. Bitcoin and Ethereum make up nearly 70% of that, leaving about $1.04T in the rest of the market.

But most projects have only released a fraction of their token supply. Messari estimates that only 30% of tokens are actually circulating. The rest is locked in vesting schedules, treasuries, or investor wallets. That suggests around $728B in token value is effectively off the market, illiquid and largely invisible.

And that’s just among listed projects. Messari also estimates that up to 60% of crypto projects haven’t launched tokens at all, and many may never do so. Think Base, MetaMask, ConsenSys. These are real businesses with meaningful value that isn’t reflected on token charts. That adds another $1.5T to $2T in potential private market value.

Summing up

Depending on the method used, estimates for the size of crypto’s private markets vary widely. The venture capital model, which factors in valuation multiples, company growth, and underreported deal flow, suggests a market worth between $8T and $11T. The market cap-based approach, which accounts for locked token supply and non-tokenized projects, points to a range of $1.5T to $2.5T. Included in that is an estimated $700B to $800B in illiquid assets held by projects that are already publicly trading but have yet to unlock most of their token supply.

A pretty sizable chunk of the ecosystem, wouldn’t you say?